What’s Going On With Alcohol Sales In The San Francisco Bay Area?

Looking for restaurant insights in the San Francisco Bay area? Toast has you covered with new insights from Toast Benchmarking. This tool, exclusive to Toast customers, leverages AI-based classification and allows users to compare restaurant and menu category performance against aggregated data from peer Toast restaurants. 

Early bird gets the $$$

Toast compared same-store transactions at restaurants on the platform from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024 and noticed a trend emerge: early-morning breakfast transactions were up year-over-year, while late-night transactions were down.

If your restaurant serves breakfast, consider opening an hour or two early to attract early-morning guests as they head to work. Transactions between 5 a.m. through 9 a.m. were up, with the largest increases occurring at 5 a.m. (+7%) and 6 a.m. (+8%).

If your restaurant is open for dinner service and things have been feeling a little slow at night's end, you aren’t alone! Toast found fewer late-night transactions in the San Francisco Bay area in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. Consider phasing out staff earlier to help save on labor, or offer a pared down “after-hours” menu on a discount to attract guests looking for some late-night munchies.

Methodology: Toast analyzed hourly transactions at restaurants in the San Francisco–Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA ) on the Toast platform from April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since Q1 2023. 

Oh my dumplings

Dumpling lovers, embrace for bad news. 

As much as we love soft, pillowy dumplings filled with your choice of meats and veggies, people aren’t ordering them like they used to. Dumpling sales in the San Francisco Bay area were down a whopping 14% in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. So what gives?

Maybe the price of dumplings has grown too much for guests to stomach. After all, dumplings are historically a cheap eat. Or maybe diners are opting for trendier options like bowls, which were up 3.4% year-over-year.

If your sales of dumplings, hot dogs, and sandwiches/wraps are slumping, consider adding a steak, burger, bowls, and the crowd-favorite chicken tenders, which were more popular than last year. Whether you're a toddler or a full-grown adult with a job, who doesn’t love a chicken tender? (The data agrees.)

We’re not going to tell you to remove dumplings from your menu, but check out Toast Benchmarking to see more trends and make sure you're optimizing your menu and pricing.

Methodology: Toast analyzed transactions at restaurants in the San Francisco–Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA ) on the Toast platform from April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, to determine the popularity of dumplings, hot dogs, roasted chicken, vegetarian/vegan dishes, sandwiches/wraps, salads, pasta, fries, steak, burgers, bowls, and chicken fingers. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since Q1 2023.

Mocktails are so hot right now

You don’t need to get loaded to enjoy a good cocktail. At least, that’s how guests in the San Francisco Bay area are feeling. Alcohol sales across all types were down in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. And interestingly, mocktails were up 1.8% for the same time period.

Health-conscious diners may be choosing to forgo alcohol altogether, while cash-strapped guests may look at the markup of red wine and say, “I’ll just grab a bottle at the shop on my way home.”

Regardless of what’s behind the changing guest trends, consider offering a non-alcoholic bevvy on your menu so your guests can still enjoy something nice without the hangover. If you’re noticing a decline in certain types of spirits, consider limiting the number of options you offer to decrease your overhead expenses and keep those dusty bottles off the shelf. And hey – there’s always happy hour!

Methodology: Toast analyzed transactions at restaurants in the San Francisco–Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA ) on the Toast platform from April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, to determine the popularity of red wine, whiskey, sparkling wine, rum, tequila, vodka, beer, hard seltzers, white wine, gin, and mocktails. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since Q1 2023.

The cold brew brouhaha

Caffeinated consumers in the San Francisco Bay area just can’t get enough of that cold brew. We get it — West Coasters get up early and are playing catch up with the rest of the world, and as we noted earlier, guests frequent restaurants earlier and earlier. What better way to jolt yourself awake than a less acidic take on an old classic?

But seriously, if you aren’t offering cold brew coffee, you should strongly consider it. Sales are up 16.7% in Q2 2024 in the Bay area compared to Q2 2023, while decaf (-10.2%) and regular coffee (-5%), cappuccinos (-1.5%), and lattes (-1.2%) were all down. Macchiatos (+13%) are also having a moment, while iced coffee (+2%) and sparkling water (+2%) also increased in popularity.

While cold brew does take a long time to prep, pouring a quick glass will save your barista a ton of time as they service more complicated drinks at the espresso machine. Get brewing!

Methodology: Toast analyzed transactions at restaurants in the San Francisco–Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA ) on the Toast platform from April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, to determine the popularity of decaf, regular coffee, still water, cappuccino, latte, Americano, espresso, mocha, sparkling water, iced coffee, macchiato, and cold brew. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since Q1 2023.

Long steep = steep prices

You can’t go anywhere without hearing about inflation, and we’re here to tell you that the rise in cold brew popularity also came with a steep price increase. The price of the average cold brew in the Bay area is up 7.5% year-over-year to an average of $5.97 in Q2 2024, but as we just told you, people can’t stop ordering them.

Are you maximizing your revenue? Check out Toast Benchmarking to optimize your menu and pricing with insights like these.

Methodology: Toast analyzed transactions at restaurants in the San Francisco–Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA ) on the Toast platform from April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, to determine the pricing of decaf, regular coffee, still water, cappuccino, latte, Americano, espresso, mocha, sparkling water, iced coffee, macchiato, and cold brew. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since Q1 2023.

About the San Francisco Bay Area Trends Report:

The San Francisco Bay Area Trends Report, powered by Toast, uncovers key trends across the restaurant industry through aggregated sales data from a selection of cohorts of restaurants on the Toast platform, which has approximately 120,000 locations as of  June 30, 2024. This information is provided for general informational purposes only, and publication does not constitute an endorsement. Toast does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information, text, graphics, links, or other items contained within this content. Individual results may vary. Toast does not guarantee you will achieve any specific results if you follow any advice herein. It may be advisable for you to consult with a professional such as a lawyer, accountant, or business advisor for advice specific to your situation. The report is not indicative of the operational performance of Toast or its reported financial metrics.