Do Guests Still Go Out in January? [January - February 2024 Restaurant Data]

The holiday catering orders have been fulfilled, champagne toasts have concluded, and the excitement of ordering a “sweet treat” after dinner has disappeared. Now, restaurants face their annual January challenge. This is the time when America collectively decides to cook at home, count calories, and participate in Dry January.

Yet, the dog days of January don't have to completely freeze your business growth. Toast has identified key trends that can make the industry's slowest month a little better. 

From Jan. 1 to Jan. 31, 2024, Toast analyzed month-over-month food sales compared to the rest of the year. This article breaks down practical insights for menu planning, inventory management, and operational strategy for 2025 and beyond.

Quick insights:

• January was the slowest month in 2024

• There were about 11% fewer transactions in January than the average for the rest of 2024

• Alcohol was down about 14% in January 2024 compared to the rest of the year 

While these numbers confirm January's reputation as the industry's slowest month, they also reveal opportunities for operators to adapt. Let’s dive in.

Guests dine out about 11% less in January 

The fact of the matter is that January is one of the slowest months for the restaurant industry. Guests go out about 11% less frequently compared to the average of the rest of the year and spend about 3% less per transaction compared to the rest of the year. 

However, savvy restaurant operators can turn this quiet period into an opportunity. A recent study by Toast found that 53% of respondents actively look for restaurants that offer healthier options. Consider introducing new menu items that cater to health-conscious resolutions.

Additionally, this slower period provides an ideal time to refresh training programs, update interiors, and launch targeted marketing campaigns that emphasize value without sacrificing quality. 

Smart inventory management and strategic scheduling can help control costs during the slower period, while special events like cooking classes or wine tastings can create unique reasons for guests to visit. To successfully navigate January, focus on building customer loyalty while simultaneously using the time to strengthen your operations.

Dry January takes over: Alcohol sales down about 14%

Alcohol sales were down about 14% in January 2024 compared to the rest of the year. This is likely due to the popularity surge of Dry January, a health-focused movement where participants abstain from alcohol for the first month of the year. Consider keeping the margarita specials on the back burner, as tequila sales in particular were down 18%, and instead make sure your soda machine is fully stocked. 

Dry January is often most popular with Gen Z, as 75% of Gen Z adults aged 21-24 were at least ‘somewhat likely’ to participate in Dry January in 2024. Because of this preference, nightlife activities/businesses should consider catering to a wider variety of tastes — aka, non-alcoholic options. For delicious, non-alcoholic inspiration, check out our guide to mocktails. After all, 25% of guests say that creative ingredients/flavors make a mocktail most appealing. 

It only goes up from here

After focusing on mocktails, operational improvements, and restaurant specials, your business will likely pick up in February. The second month of the year brings the Super Bowl, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day long weekend. Guests are also likely to indulge in some tasty cocktails after a long Dry January. And let’s be real, the no-carb resolution doesn’t last long for many. 

From Jan. 1 to Feb. 29, 2024, Toast analyzed month-over-month food sales to find out what restaurants can expect this February.2 At a glance in February 2024:

• Dessert sales increased by 13% 

• Steak sales increased by 12% 

• Pasta sales increased by 11%

• Vegan/vegetarian items increased sales by 10% 

• Nacho sales increased by 10%

• Wing sales increased by 4%

• Curry increased by 2%

• Dumplings increased by 2%

Did you know that Valentine’s Day is one of the busiest dining nights of the year? In January 2024, Toast surveyed 850 U.S. adult diners ages 25 and older and found that 52% of respondents always go out to a restaurant on Valentine’s Day.3 Make sure to promote your Valentine’s Day specials, promotions, and reservations on social media to capitalize on this date night (or day). 

What else is happening?

So that was January in a nutshell, but what else is happening in the industry? Check out these related resources below to stay up to date with the industry:

• Make the Most of 2024 Restaurant Reservation & Waitlist Data

• Health-Conscious Dining and Dry January: What Diners Really Want in 2025 [Survey Results]

• How to Attract Customers to Your Restaurant to Increase Late-Night Sales

• What 1,000+ Restaurant Workers Really Want (2024 Data)

• The State of the Restaurant Industry in 2024: How Restaurants Are Writing Their Next Chapter

Methodology

1_Toast analyzed transactions on the Toast platform from January 1, 2024 - January 31, 2024, to determine the popularity of food items and alcoholic beverages. Toast then compared it to the overall average for 2024._ 

2_Toast analyzed transactions on the Toast platform from January 1, 2024, to February 29, 2024, to determine the popularity of dishes labeled “salads, bowls, nachos, tacos, burgers, chicken tenders, roast chicken, fries, quesadillas, sandwiches, sushi, BBQ, burritos, desserts, enchiladas, pizza, cheese, omelette, pasta, wings, rice, steaks, dumplings, curry, ramen/noodles, soups/stews and vegan/vegetarian.” Toast then compared the average volume for the month of January 2024 to the average volume for February 2024. Results shown are the top five and bottom five movers for the categories listed._ 

3_Toast conducted a blind survey on this topic of 850 U.S. adults ages 25 and older on January 24, 2024. Respondents were not made aware that Toast was fielding the study. Using a standard margin of error calculation, at a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error on average is +/- 3 - 5%._