Unravel the Restaurant Supply Chain and Forecast 2026 Prices

It’s been a turbulent few years for the restaurant supply chain. Food prices, disruptions in raw materials, labor shortages have all contributed to a shaky restaurant food supply.

The restaurant industry is susceptible to global and regional food supply chains — though restaurateurs and their restaurant operations can and must mitigate this susceptibility. 

Tactics for protecting the bottom line from supply challenges include strategic menu pricing, precise food cost measures, dynamic procurement plans, and more.

In this article, you will learn what makes up the restaurant supply chain, risks to the restaurant food supply, and tips for optimal restaurant supply chain management tactics and tools.

Simplify the complexities of restaurant supply chain management

The restaurant supply chain process refers to all of the parties that touch the food served in restaurants. Building an efficient supply chain involves every step from raw material creation to finished product, including:

• Farmers, cultivators

• Harvesters, processors

• Transporters, warehousers

• Manufacturers

• Distributors, food suppliers

• Restaurants

• Guests 

Each restaurant’s food supply varies depending on nuances of the operation and their standards for food safety.

For example, farm-to-table restaurants may have a more localized and regional supply chain where food providers are also the farmers or ranchers. Whereas fast casual restaurant owners may be at the mercy of wherever their suppliers source their products.

In general, suppliers for most restaurant operations depend on at least a national if not a fully global supply chain. This scale naturally opens the restaurant industry to supply chain disruptions.

Labor’s impact on the restaurant food supply chain and ingredient prices

Michael Swanson, Ph.D., Chief Agricultural Economist, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, writes that the increase in food inflation from the pandemic until now was not due to ingredient shortages. 

He sees the trend being directly attributable to the lack of labor across the food supply chain — in America and abroad.

“The recent burst of food inflation could not be about a lack of raw ingredients when so little of the food dollar goes to ingredients. Rather, it was about a lack of labor, trucks, pallets, and packaging. And really, the lack of trucks, pallets, and packaging was about a lack of labor.”

“The recovery of the labor markets has healed these supply disruptions, and the recent slowdown in wage growth reflects the reduced struggle to fill empty jobs.”

This nuance in how to attribute food inflation is a great example of how many cogs are in the restaurant supply chain — and how any bottlenecks along the way can throw things into turmoil. 

Not to say that you need to stay attuned to the intricacies of all supply chain issues that may arise.

Experts explain where we’ve been and what we may see in the months ahead for individual ingredient costs

Food inflation, supply shortages, and raw materials price volatility has rocketed restaurant supply chain management to the forefront of the industry — and rightfully so. How can sports bars keep up with customer demand when wholesale chicken wing prices are at all-time highs?

For most of the decade leading up to the pandemic, restaurant price inflation was predictable and modest — rarely straying far from the 3% historical average that operators had come to plan around. That stability evaporated quickly. As supply chain disruptions and labor shortages collided, food-away-from-home prices surged, peaking at 8.8% year-over-year in March 2023 — the fastest rate of restaurant inflation in over two decades.

The cooldown since has been gradual but meaningful. Food-away-from-home prices rose 4.1% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025 — still slightly above the long-run historical average of 3.5% per year, but trending in the right direction. As of April 2026, menu prices are up 3.6% year-over-year — the slowest pace of growth in 15 months. The USDA now forecasts that food-away-from-home prices in 2026 will rise at roughly their 20-year average rate — a signal that, for the first time in several years, operators may finally be able to plan around predictable food costs again.

2026 inflation forecast for individual ingredients price ranges

Let’s go deeper into the USDA forecast to see where they predict inflation may land for these key ingredients.

Based on the USDA’s Food Price Outlook, last updated on April 24, 2026 as of the date of this article, beef and veal is again the food category at risk for the largest YoY inflation, with prices predicted to increase 6.3% in 2026 — though the prediction interval ranges widely from 0.1% on the low end to 13.1% on the high end. Tight cattle supplies (the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking since 2019) combined with resilient consumer demand are keeping upward pressure on prices.

For restaurant operators specifically, the USDA forecasts food-away-from-home prices to increase 3.6% in 2026, with a prediction interval of 2.8% to 4.5% — meaningful pressure on operators trying to hold menu prices steady. 

We can forecast price bands for specific ingredients using public USDA wholesale price data combined with the latest USDA Food Price Outlook prediction intervals.

2026 wholesale restaurant brisket prices based on USDA forecast

As of early May 2026, the USDA's National Daily Boxed Beef report listed the Choice Primal Brisket cutout value at $359.57 per 100 pounds — roughly $3.60/lb at the wholesale FOB-plant level. With high-quality beef and veal forecast to rise 6.3% in 2026 (low band 0.1%, high band 13.1%), that translates to a 2026 range of roughly $3.60 on the low end, $3.83 in the middle, and $4.07 on the high side.

2026 wholesale restaurant bacon prices based on USDA forecast

Bacon doesn't have a clean wholesale benchmark — USDA's closest equivalent is the pork belly primal value, which is the raw input bacon processors buy. As of early May 2026, the pork belly primal cutout was around $134 per 100 pounds, or $1.34/lb. Finished bacon prices to restaurants run substantially higher due to processing margins; retail bacon averaged $7.02/lb in 2025 with a bacon processing gross margin of $5.43 per pound. With pork prices forecast to increase just 0.4% in 2026 (prediction interval -3.8% to 4.8%), pork belly inputs should remain fairly stable through the year-end for those prioritizing quality ingredients.

2026 wholesale restaurant chicken wing prices based on USDA forecast

Wholesale chicken wing prices opened 2026 in restaurant operators' favor. To further optimize your spending, keep an eye on cold storage inventories. Wholesale wing prices started the year below $1.00 per pound and have risen only modestly to slightly above $1.10 per pound, well below the volatility-driven highs of 2021–2022. Cold storage inventories are running below 2025 levels but remain more than double the 2021–22 levels when wing prices spiked. With poultry prices forecast to rise just 0.7% in 2026, wholesale wings should stay in roughly the $1.10–$1.20/lb range absent a supply shock.

2026 wholesale restaurant egg prices based on USDA forecast

Eggs were the most volatile category in the food supply chain over the last two years. Following the 2024–early 2025 HPAI (avian flu) outbreak that decimated laying flocks, wholesale prices spiked to record highs before crashing as production rebuilt. As of early May 2026, USDA's New York shell egg report showed wholesale large white eggs at roughly $0.58/dozen delivered to retailers, with the national daily shell egg index showing graded loose large white eggs in the $1.10–$1.20/dozen range. The USDA forecasts egg prices to fall more than 27% in 2026, with longer-term USDA targets pointing to roughly $2.16/dozen at retail as the year progresses.

2026 wholesale restaurant salmon prices based on USDA forecast

Salmon pricing is harder to benchmark from public USDA data because most U.S. supply is imported Atlantic farmed salmon or wild-caught Pacific. NOAA Fisheries' Boston Market News and trade data offer the best public visibility. As of early March 2026, U.S. wholesalers reported a significant jump in prices being quoted for Norwegian salmon in the lead-up to Seafood Expo North America, with skinless superior Atlantic salmon loins seeing roughly $0.70/lb price increases in a single week. Restaurant operators tracking salmon should watch Norwegian export pricing and farmed-fish supply disruptions, as well as the growing industry focus on sustainability.

Activating supply insights for food costs, menu item pricing, inventory management, and overall restaurant operations

The management component of restaurant supply chain management refers to restaurant operations taking action to preempt disruptions and mitigate any impacts on your cost of goods. 

This is the primary reason why restaurateurs, GMs, kitchen managers, chefs, and the like should stay attuned to the supply chain.

The challenge that restaurant stakeholders face is making any insights actionable in protecting the bottom line.

For example, what should restaurateurs do in response to the USDA forecasting continued YoY inflation for restaurant prices? The best answers vary from one restaurant to the next, depending on their existing cost control processes, inventory management systems, and menu price strategy, among other things.

In a specific hypothetical, how might a head chef at a rice-heavy restaurant react to hearing about a significant, sustained drought in rice growing countries — mixed with an industrial fire at a massive warehouse dedicated to international rice export?

In this instance, they can’t remove rice entirely from their menu. 

They could, for example, look to create more menu items that feature other grains similar to rice, such as farro, bulgur, or quinoa (provided that these alternative grains are actually less expensive than rice, even with the hypothetical supply-chain challenges). 

They can pass the increased ingredient costs along to their customers by raising menu prices and/or maintaining prices while decreasing serving sizes.

Or, given the durability of rice grains, a well-attuned chef could quickly identify the potential shortage and stock up rice inventory levels before any price increases happen.

This is a fanciful, worst-case scenario. The point remains the same though. 

Restaurants should bake food cost monitoring into their operation. Such cost control capabilities help operators keep track of localized prices and make the data-driven decisions necessary to protect profits.

Optimizing restaurateurs’ own supply chain with invoice automation, inventory management, and more

Any restaurant operators serious about building out food cost control capabilities can set that foundation in invoice automation. This allows you to streamline the workflow and cut costs by catching price creeps early.

Automated processing helps operators know when to reorder, what to include, and how much to order to help reduce food waste. It also fosters a better partnership with vendors through open communication and professional supplier relationship management. 

xtraCHEF by Toast is rooted in invoice automation. Just like Toast’s POS (point of sale) system, xtraCHEF is built for restaurants. These tools work together to enhance customer satisfaction and the overall customer experience, whether your guests are dining in or ordering takeout.

We’re delighted to provide monthly reports on wholesale restaurant ingredient price trends. However, xtraCHEF can unlock those same insights for your exact food costs — enabling you to have accurate information designed to help you protect profits as you act on restaurant supply chain fluctuations.

Methodology

Wholesale ingredient prices in this 2026 update are drawn from publicly available reports. These reflect FOB plant or first-buyer wholesale levels and are typically lower than what restaurants pay through distributors. Salmon data references NOAA Fisheries Market News and SeafoodSource reporting, as USDA does not publish comparable salmon wholesale data. Forecast price ranges were calculated by applying the prediction intervals from the USDA Food Price Outlook (last updated April 24, 2026) to the corresponding May 2026 wholesale prices.

Disclaimer

This information is provided for general informational purposes only. Toast does not warrant the completeness of any information, text, graphics, links, or other items contained within this content. Toast does not guarantee you will achieve any specific results if you follow any advice herein. It may be advisable for you to consult with a professional such as a lawyer, accountant.

Forward-Looking Statements

This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are not guaranteed, and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may not prove to be accurate. 

These statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, except as required by law. Specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the effect of economic conditions in the United States and globally, general industry conditions and the other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time in Toast’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Toast does not guarantee you will achieve any specific results if you follow any advice herein.

2026 Restaurant Supply Chain & Pricing FAQs

1. What is the projected food price inflation for restaurants in 2026?

According to the USDA Food Price Outlook, food-away-from-home prices are expected to increase by 3.6% in 2026. While this is a significant decrease from the 8.8% peak seen in 2023, it remains a meaningful pressure point for operators trying to maintain steady menu prices.

2. Which specific ingredients are seeing the highest price increases in 2026?

Beef and veal are currently the highest-risk categories, with predicted inflation of 6.3% due to tight cattle supplies. Conversely, egg prices are forecast to fall by more than 27% as production recovers from previous avian flu outbreaks, and poultry prices are expected to remain relatively stable with only a 0.7% increase.

3. What are the primary drivers of restaurant supply chain disruptions in 2026?

While ingredient shortages occur, experts point to labor shortages across the supply chain—affecting trucking, pallets, and packaging—as the primary driver of inflation. Global trade conditions, climate impacts on crops (like rice), and transportation bottlenecks also contribute to the volatility of raw material costs.

4. How can restaurant operators protect profit margins against rising food costs?

Operators can mitigate price fluctuations by implementing dynamic procurement plans, adjusting menu pricing strategically, and diversifying ingredients (such as using alternative grains like farro or quinoa). Monitoring localized ingredient prices in real-time allows for "surgical" adjustments to portion sizes or recipe builds before costs erode profits.

5. How does invoice automation improve restaurant supply chain management?

Invoice automation, through tools like xtraCHEF by Toast, serves as the "point of truth" for tracking line-item price fluctuations. By digitizing invoices, restaurants can identify "price creep" early, optimize reorder levels to prevent spoilage, and maintain open communication with suppliers to strengthen long-term partnerships.