Grocery Store Trends: 10 Stats & Insights for 2026

This year’s grocery store trends are being shaped by value-conscious shoppers, omnichannel buying, prepared foods, private label growth, health-focused products, and rising expectations for convenience. Even as online grocery grows, shoppers still rely on physical stores for fresh food, quick meals, weekly essentials, and trusted in-person experiences.

For grocery retailers, keeping up means more than stocking the right products. Stores need connected systems that can support online ordering, inventory visibility, loyalty, and fast-changing shopper habits. A Toast's Grocery POS system can help retailers manage these moving parts while giving customers the smooth, convenient experience they expect.

In this guide, we’ll break down the top grocery store trends shaping food retail in 2026 and what they mean for grocery stores, supermarkets, and food retailers planning for the year ahead.

Key takeaways

• Physical grocery stores still matter, even as online ordering becomes a bigger part of how shoppers buy food.

• 9-in-10 grocers are already experimenting with AI in some form. 

• Value remains a top priority, pushing grocers to focus on private label, promotions, loyalty, and price transparency.

• Prepared foods, fresh departments, and high-protein products are helping grocery stores compete for more meal occasions.

• Health trends like GLP-1 medications and protein-focused eating are changing what shoppers put in their baskets.

• Tight grocery margins make connected systems, accurate inventory, efficient checkout, and better reporting more important than ever.

11 Grocery trends for 2026

1. In-store grocery shopping still matters

Even as online grocery grows, the physical store is still central to how Americans buy food. FMI’s 2026 U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends report found that 54% of Americans always shop in-store at their primary grocery store. Shoppers still value being able to choose produce, compare options, check freshness, and make decisions in the aisle.

For grocers, that means the store experience still matters. Clean layouts, accurate pricing, fast checkout, stocked shelves, prepared food displays, and helpful staff all play a role in earning repeat visits.

2. Online grocery is becoming a major growth engine

FMI and NIQ project that U.S. online grocery sales will reach $452 billion by 2028, with e-commerce contributing close to three-quarters of grocery dollar growth in 2025.

This means grocers need effective online ordering systems: accurate inventory, easy online ordering, pickup, delivery, digital promotions, and consistent pricing across channels.

3. Grocery prices are still shaping shopper behavior

Price pressure is still part of the grocery story. USDA’s June 2026 Food Price Outlook predicts that food-at-home prices will rise 2.8% in 2026, slightly above the 20-year historical average of 2.6%.

For shoppers, even modest price increases can change how they build baskets. For grocers, this makes value messaging, private label, promotions, loyalty programs, and price transparency especially important.

4. Private label keeps gaining ground

Store brands are becoming a core part of how grocers compete. Private label sales in the U.S. rose 3.3% in 2025 to a record $282.8 billion, growing nearly three times faster than national brands, according to PLMA and Circana data reported by Food Dive.

That growth reflects how shoppers define value today: not just low price, but quality, trust, health, sustainability, and consistency. Strong private-label programs can also help grocers stand out from competitors.

5. Grocery prepared foods are competing with restaurants

Prepared foods are becoming one of the clearest grocery store trends. FMI found that the share of consumers choosing deli-prepared foods instead of restaurant meals more than doubled, rising from 12% in 2017 to 28% in 2025.

That creates a major opportunity for grocery stores. Hot bars, rotisserie chicken, sushi, salads, sandwiches, meal kits, and grab-and-go dinners can help grocers capture meal occasions that might otherwise go to restaurants or delivery apps.

6. Fresh foods are driving differentiation

Fresh departments are becoming more important to grocery growth and customer loyalty. FMI’s State of Fresh Foods 2025 report found that foodservice reached record sales of $56 billion, while 87% of retailers used fresh-prepared foodservice programs and 63% reported success.

Fresh foods give grocers a way to compete on quality, convenience, and experience. They also create operational challenges around inventory, labor, waste, and demand forecasting, making better systems and reporting more important.

7. GLP-1 medications are changing grocery baskets

GLP-1 medications are becoming a meaningful consumer trend for grocers. PwC reports that 21% of U.S. households now include a current GLP-1 user, up from 9% in January 2025. PwC also found that grocery spend among GLP-1 users is down 5.5% as shoppers shift away from snacks, sugary drinks, and alcohol toward fresh produce, protein, and supplements.

For grocers, this could affect categories across the store, from snacks and beverages to prepared foods, supplements, meat, produce, and portion-controlled meals.

8. Protein is an everyday grocery priority

Protein has moved beyond fitness shoppers and into mainstream grocery demand. FoodNavigator reports that 86% of Americans say they are actively trying to add more protein to their diets.

That shift can influence merchandising across meat, dairy, frozen meals, snacks, beverages, prepared foods, and private labels. Grocers that make high-protein options easy to find may be better positioned to serve shoppers focused on health, satiety, and convenience.

9. Meat remains a major grocery basket driver

Even with price pressure, meat remains central to grocery shopping. FMI and the Meat Institute’s Power of Meat report found that meat sales hit a record $112 billion in 2025, and more than 98% of American households purchase meat.

This connects with the broader protein trend. Meat departments can help drive trips, basket size, meal planning, and prepared food opportunities, especially when paired with recipes, bundles, promotions, and ready-to-cook options.

10. Thin margins make efficiency more important

Grocery retail has always been a low-margin business, and that pressure is not going away. FMI reported that food retail profit margins settled at 1.7% in 2025, while food product suppliers reported net income of 7.7%.

With margins that tight, grocers need to protect every operational advantage they can. Inventory accuracy, labor planning, digital ordering, pricing, promotions, reporting, and checkout efficiency can all affect profitability.

11. Grocers are using AI

Over 9-in-10 grocers are already experimenting with AI in some form. But how they're doing it matters: 53% are experimenting exclusively through their technology vendors. And when asked who they'd trust most to guide their AI strategy, 38% pointed to a retail tech vendor they already use. Existing technology partners have a meaningful advantage when it comes to AI trust and guidance.

To learn more about how grocers are using AI, check out Toast’s 2026 Grocery Industry Report. 

The future of grocery is connected

Grocery shoppers are looking for value, convenience, freshness, and flexibility all at once. They’re comparing prices, buying more private label products, ordering online, picking up prepared meals, and looking for foods that fit their health goals.

For grocery stores, that means every part of the operation matters, from inventory and checkout to online ordering, prepared foods, loyalty, and reporting. The retailers that can connect those pieces will be better positioned to serve shoppers today and adapt to whatever comes next.

Toast POS for grocery store

Designed for the realities of modern grocery, Toast is built to help lean teams simplify day-to-day operations so they can focus on the decisions that matter most. Whether it's checking sales by department, monitoring labor costs, or spotting inventory issues on the go, the Toast Now app gives operators real-time visibility into their business from anywhere. And with Toast IQ, grocers can surface insights and take action within the platform (no tab-switching required).

Schedule a demo today. 

Frequently asked questions

Does Toast work as a grocery store POS system?

Yes, Toast is a POS system built for the full complexity of running a grocery store. It supports high SKU counts, by-weight pricing, EBT/SNAP payments, department-level inventory tracking, and vendor invoice management all from one platform.

Can a grocery store POS accept EBT and SNAP payments?

Yes, Toast supports EBT and SNAP payment processing directly at the point of sale; no separate terminal needed. Toast can automatically identify eligible items and separates them at checkout, so your line keeps moving without manual intervention from your cashiers.

How does a grocery store POS handle weighted items?

Toast supports integrated scale functionality for produce, deli, meat, bakery, and bulk departments. The POS pulls weight directly from a connected scale and calculates the price, reducing manual entry and pricing errors at checkout. Toast can also scan barcode labels produced by any scale vendor that follows the GS1 spec for variable measure items.

Can I use the same POS for my grocery store and my deli or food service?

Yes, Toast lets you run your grocery floor and your deli, bakery, or prepared foods counter from the same platform — no separate terminals needed. Customers can check out anywhere, no matter what they're purchasing, and food counter orders route directly to a kitchen display system. So you can manage your whole store in one place, without switching between systems.

How much does a grocery store POS system cost?

The upfront costs for Toast are hardware and implementation****, which vary depending on your specific hardware packages and installation needs. We have flexible payment options available, including payment as a percentage of your sales* or a fixed monthly payment using our third-party financing partner. These solutions are not just for Retailers with great credit; they have no interest or fees, and our Easy Pay option has a 100% approval rate and no credit check.

Within our Starter Kit, we also offer the Pay-as-you-Go plan that reduces your upfront hardware and installation costs through an all-in-one platform rate.

* Pricing applies to new customers and single locations only.  **** Includes shipping, handling, installation, onboarding and taxes.