Key takeaways
What Affects Pricing?
The price of regular coffee on restaurant menus in the United States has fluctuated significantly over the past two years. Several factors can influence coffee prices, including sourcing, demand, labor, equipment, and overhead costs.
Key Factors Recently
Weather is among the most influential factors affecting coffee prices in recent years. Coffee requires very specific conditions to grow and is primarily sourced from an area known as the “bean belt,” which lies between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.
Extreme weather, including both droughts and flooding, has put a strain on coffee production over the past few years, but demand has continued to grow.
Due to increased demand and climate concerns from harvesters in Brazil, coffee prices may continue climbing at a rate higher than that of other menu items. After remaining flat for several months, median coffee prices started rising again in July 2025.
Global coffee commodity prices plunged in late November following the removal of tariffs on imports from Brazil, which could help ease costs for operators in the coming months.
While global coffee commodity futures have seen recent volatility—with some drops tied to favorable crop forecasts in Brazil—those upstream savings likely haven't yet reached the operator level. Factors like international shipping costs and ongoing labor pressures mean cafes and restaurants may be forced to pass these elevated costs on to consumers to protect their margins.
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About the Toast Menu Price Monitor
The Menu Price Monitor, powered by Toast, uncovers key menu pricing trends across the restaurant industry through aggregated sales data from restaurants on the Toast platform, which has approximately 171,000 locations as of March 31, 2026. This information is provided for general informational purposes only, and publication does not constitute an endorsement. Toast does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information, text, graphics, links, or other items contained within this content. Individual results may vary. Toast does not guarantee you will achieve any specific results if you follow any advice herein. It may be advisable for you to consult with a professional such as a lawyer, accountant, or business advisor for advice specific to your situation. The Toast Menu Item Price Tracker does not indicate Toast's operational performance or its reported financial metrics.
